10 Dollar Death Bot

God's Eye · paper Polymarket desk

Paper · $0 at risk

connecting…

Net equity — after what it costs to run

$—

— —

start reference — · peak — · drawdown —

gross—

costs—

net—

runway—

deployed — cash — — positions open

Equity curve

Realised P&L

—

no closed trades yet

Win rate

—

nothing has resolved

Unrealised

—

marked at the bid, not the mid

Deployed

—

Run cost

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a share of a VPS; no LLM in the loop

Resolutions

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the sample the edge question needs

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order-book markets
swept last tick

What the sweep found

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Dutch-book sets priced under 1.00

Buy every leg of an event for less than the $1 it must pay out. Best complete set cost — — gross edge —, against a — floor. Rows tagged partial priced only the legs that cleared the liquidity filter: buying 3 of an event’s 51 outcomes guarantees nothing, so their shortfall from 1.00 is not edge. And open_position takes one token, so set execution is not implemented either way.

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Resolution-yield candidates (favourites at 0.90–0.985)

The ask is the market's probability estimate, so buying favourites has ~zero expected value unless the favourite–longshot bias is real on this venue and bigger than the spread. Every row carries edge_measured: false.

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Actionable at the configured floor

This is the finding, not a bug. The open positions are an experiment — they measure whether any edge exists here. More parallel bets cannot manufacture edge; they only cut the variance of finding out.

Open positions marked at the bid

Market	Paid	Shares	Mark	Value	Unrealised	B/E	Resolves

Activity from data/pm_ledger.jsonl

Going live would need

None of it is done, and none of it is half-done. There is no wallet, no key and no account anywhere in this project.

Candidate board evidence for the zero

	Event	Cost / Ask	Gross edge	Days	Depth	Actionable

What this page is

A paper desk. The $10, the $0 and the “death” are all simulated. Prices are walked through the real order book for the size wanted, never a midpoint, and positions are marked at the bid — so the opening drawdown you see is the honest cost of the spread, not a loss of thesis.

The forward record in data/pm_ledger.jsonl is the actual product. Nothing on this page is a claim that the strategy works; it is the instrument for finding out whether it does.

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github.com/CritCoder/10-dollar-death-bot